Live markets: Bitcoin not fully out of danger as Trump warns of further Iran strikes

Live markets: Bitcoin not fully out of danger as Trump warns of further Iran strikes

A ceasefire in April collapsed, and U.S. strikes broke a second truce on June 9 with bitcoin giving back the entire move both times.

Following the announcement of a U.S., Iran peace agreement, both risk assets and haven investments have rallied. Bitcoin climbed to $66,000, gold surged more than 2.5% to trade above $4,300, and the Invesco QQQ ETF rose more than 2% in Monday pre-market trading.

Crypto-related equities also advanced. Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, rose 6%, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) added 5% and SpaceX (SPCX) climbed 6%.

AI-focused bitcoin miners are participating in the rally. Both TerraWulf (WULF) and Cipher Mining (CIFR) added 4%, and IREN (IREN) is higher by 5%.

ARK Invest bought roughly 3.29 million shares of SpaceX on Friday, the day Elon Musk's company went public in the largest IPO ever. The buy was worth more than $500 million by the end of the day across four ARK ETFs.

SpaceX priced at $135 and closed at $160.95, up 19.2% on its first day. The Cathie Wood-led firm had offloaded shares across roughly 20 companies in the days around the listing, including Advanced Micro Devices and Rocket Lab, a company SpaceX identified as a competitor in its filing.

The ARK Innovation ETF did the bulk of the buying, ending the day with SpaceX at about 3.28% of its portfolio.

Traders have put more than $78 million into bitcoin price prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi for 2026, and the crowd is not pricing a breakout, even after the US-Iran peace deal landed Monday.

Polymarket's June market, with about $15.6 million in volume, puts the most likely recovery point at $67,500 with 70% odds. A move to $72,500 carries 18% odds. The $100,000 target for June sits below 1%. On the downside, bettors give a $55,000 floor an 8% chance.

Kalshi's June market tells the same story with different numbers. Traders there put a 14% probability on bitcoin crossing $75,000 before June 30, falling to 9% for $77,500 and 5% for $80,000.

The year-end picture is similarly muted. Kalshi's December market, drawing $25.8 million in volume, has the consensus sitting near $66,000, with the probability distribution bunched in the $50,000 to $55,000 range. Polymarket gives $100,000 by year-end only 19% odds and $150,000 just 4% to 7%.

Copper climbed as much as 1.4% after the US and Iran announced an interim deal to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The industrial metal has gained about 4% since the war began in late February, while aluminum is up 13% as supply routes through the Persian Gulf were severed.

The divergence to bitcoin has an explanation. A ceasefire in April collapsed and US strikes broke a second truce on June 9 - and BTC gave back the entire move both times.

Copper, however, trades on growth expectations and supply routes. Bitcoin has been trained by two failed deals to wait for the June 19 signing in Switzerland before pricing a third.

The channel that would actually move crypto runs through central banks. Cheaper oil softens the inflation pressure that kept the Fed on hold and pushed the Bank of Japan toward a hike at tomorrow's meeting. Less hawkish policy means less carry-trade unwind risk, which is the weight that has pressed on crypto all month.

The US and Iran reached an interim deal to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, removing the macro weight that has pressed on crypto for weeks. Oil fell hard and equities jumped, while bitcoin moved only a little.

Brent crude dropped more than 4% toward $83, a three-month low, with the strait that carries about a fifth of the world's oil set to reopen on June 19. Asian shares climbed more than 3%, and Japan's Nikkei headed for a record close. Bitcoin trades near $65,000, up modestly over the weekend and still inside its recent $63,000 to $65,000 range, per CoinDesk data.

Traders may remember that bitcoin has been here before. A ceasefire in April fell apart, and US strikes broke another truce on June 9, each time clawing back the relief rally.

Traders are not pricing a permanent deal until the June 19 signing in Switzerland holds. The deal is interim, as sanctions are unresolved and Trump has said he could restart strikes if nuclear talks fail.

The bigger channel for crypto runs through inflation, not the headline.

Cheaper oil eases the price pressure that pushed central banks toward tighter policy. Meanwhile the Bank of Japan decides tomorrow, and a softer inflation backdrop could blunt the hawkish tilt that revived the yen carry-trade risk.

That is the path that would actually pull liquidity back toward crypto.