Here’s what happened in crypto today

Today in crypto, Galaxy lowered its CLARITY Act passage odds to 10%, Kraken parent Payward reported a 17% rise in second-quarter adjusted revenue despite weaker trading volumes and Morgan Stanley disclosed larger crypto fund positions led by increased holdings in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.

Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 10%

Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act’s chances of passing in 2026 to 10%.

It warned that multiple political issues remain unresolved and the Senate will have only about two to three weeks to pass it when it reconvenes on Sept. 14.

Unless an initial motion to proceed vote occurs immediately upon lawmakers’ return to Washington, there would be enough time for the CLARITY Act to pass the Senate only if it “dominates basically the entire working session,” wrote Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, in a Friday X post.

Thorn added that lawmakers would still have to work through multiple issues, including ethics rules for government officials’ involvement in crypto and pressure from banks over stablecoin yield provisions.

Galaxy lowered its previous estimate from 60% to 50% on June 26, after cutting it from 75% to 60% on June 6. Its 75% estimate was set on May 22.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has faced criticism. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, but most Democrats and the banking industry pushed back, arguing that it would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as banks. 

Payward revenue rises 17% as Kraken parent diversifies beyond crypto trading

Non-trading businesses became increasingly important to Kraken parent Payward in the second quarter, helping lift adjusted revenue 17% year over year to $508 million despite weaker trading activity.

Total transaction volume declined 13% to $310 billion, while funded accounts rose 42% to 6.6 million. Payward generated $23 million in adjusted EBITDA.

Asset-based and other businesses produced 60% of quarterly revenue, up from 55% a year earlier, underscoring the company’s broader revenue mix.

Growth in traditional futures, equities and tokenized equities helped counter softer crypto spot activity. Kraken also increased its share of the spot market for the third straight quarter.

Payward’s expansion beyond crypto trading has included moves into stocks, tokenized assets, pre-IPO exposure and futures, alongside acquisitions such as NinjaTrader and Bitnomial and its planned purchase of Magic Labs’ wallet infrastructure business.

Morgan Stanley’s BlackRock Bitcoin ETF holdings rise 23% in Q2

US investment banking giant Morgan Stanley reported larger crypto fund positions in the second quarter, led by an increase of more than 3 million shares in BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Morgan Stanley’s reported holdings in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) increased by 23% to around 16.5 million shares from 13.4 million, according to its Q2 13F filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday.

Morgan Stanley also reported 2.57 million shares of its own Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), worth about $43.3 million. The product began trading in April.

The filing showed increases across several direct crypto fund positions in Q2, even as reported holdings declined in Coinbase and some other crypto-linked companies.