Live markets: Bitcoin, ether ETFs lose $111 million combined as rate-cut hopes die

Total crypto market value has held steady near $2.26 trillion since Tuesday, with the recovery losing momentum after the Fed killed rate-cut hopes and spot ETFs swung back to outflows.

The Fed's hold this week mattered less for crypto than what it signaled, according to Matthew Pinnock, chief operating officer at Altura DeFi.

Chairman Kevin Warsh's first meeting offered little clarity, avoiding firm commitments on the path ahead, while the updated projections turned hawkish. Policymakers now see the federal funds rate ending 2026 at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, implying possible hikes rather than the cuts markets had penciled in.

Rising Treasury yields reflect a market repricing for a longer stretch of restrictive policy, a near-term headwind for risk assets, Pinnock said in a message to CoinDesk.

He sees a more constructive read underneath, however. The hawkish stance also signals the Fed's confidence in the economy. If AI-driven productivity supports growth and inflation stays contained, Pinnock noted, investors may come to view the posture as a sign of resilience rather than a threat to the risk-on backdrop that has supported bitcoin's advance.

Markets are rising before the opening of U.S. equity trading after a late selloff on Wednesday following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting. As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, but the accompanying statement and press conference struck a more hawkish tone, weighing on risk assets into the close.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has remained above 100, while the Invesco QQQ ETF is up 1.5% in pre-market trading. Precious metals are modestly higher, with gold trading below $4,300 per ounce and silver below $69 per ounce.

Bitcoin is hovering above $64,000, while crude oil continues to weaken to below $74 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining to 4.5%.

Bitcoin's (BTC) options market on Deribit shows a significant surge in short-term bearish positioning.

Data tracked by Laevitas shows whale-sized buying of bitcoin put options at the $62,000 strike expiring on June 21, that is, three days from now.

A total of 1,750 contracts hit the tape, with buyers paying over $600,000 in premium for the hedge. Laevitas described it as "near-term downside protection in the weekend expiry."

A put option gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying asset, in this case, BTC, at a predetermined price on or before the expiration date. The $62,000 strike put expiring on June 21 is essentially a bet that bitcoin’s spot price will be below that level at expiry.

Bitcoin's largest wallets are buying the dip. Addresses holding 1,000 or more BTC now control about 7.17 million coins, their highest since March 14, according to Santiment.

The accumulation comes as the recovery rally stalls near $64,000, per CoinDesk data, and it cuts against Wednesday's flows. Spot bitcoin and ether ETFs both posted broad outflows after the Federal Reserve turned hawkish and took rate cuts off the table. Whales are adding while the ETF bid fades.

The move fits a run of accumulation signals this month. Exchange reserves have fallen roughly 80,000 BTC since February as coins move into storage, long-term-holder balances sit near records, and wallets with a history of holding absorbed about 125,000 BTC in the first half of June.

The caveat is that these are accumulation readings, not a guarantee of direction. As a share of total supply, the whale stake near 35.8% still sits below its December peak.

US spot bitcoin and ether ETFs both turned to outflows on Wednesday in a sign the recovery rally has lost its institutional bid.

Bitcoin funds lost $82 million and ether funds $29 million, SoSoValue data shows. The bitcoin outflow was broad this time, with even BlackRock's IBIT shedding $31 million and ARKB down $44 million, while every ether fund finished in the red.

The trigger was the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, as expected, but the projections turned hawkish.

The median forecast now sees the policy rate ending 2026 at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, and nine of 18 officials penciled in a hike this year. Markets put the odds of an increase as soon as October near 60%. The rate cuts that helped power the bounce are gone.

The price tape stalled with the flows. Total crypto market value has held flat near $2.26 trillion since Tuesday's close, and bitcoin has eased to about $63,800, mid-range of the climb it built over the past 11 days, per CoinDesk data.

The macro backdrop has flipped. The peace deal that drove the recovery eased inflation fears, but a Fed now leaning toward hikes has replaced the cut bets crypto was counting on.

The next tests are October hike odds and whether the ETF bid returns.