Live markets: Bitcoin under pressure as Saylor comments on STRC selloff

Live markets: Bitcoin under pressure as Saylor comments on STRC selloff

About 20% of miners are now unprofitable, and publicly traded miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter to cover operating costs, more than they offloaded in all of 2025.

Charles Schwab is preparing to enter the prediction markets sector through a partnership with Cboe Global Markets, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The companies are developing options-based contracts that would let customers make yes-or-no wagers on the performance of the S&P 500. Unlike prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which typically offer futures-style contracts, Schwab's products would function as options that pay a fixed cash amount or nothing at all depending on whether the index closes above or below a target level.

Schwab and Cboe are also planning a related offering using Cboe's "Plus Zone" feature, which would provide traders with a partial payout when their prediction is close to the final market outcome, even if the index does not finish exactly at the target price.

The products are expected to launch in the coming months.

Bitcoin (BTC) moved higher during U.S. morning hours on Friday and continued to hold its recent trading range, with the world's largest cryptocurrency hovering just below the $63,000 level.

Bitcoin was recently trading at $62,942, up from earlier levels as buyers pushed prices higher during the session. The move kept the asset near the upper end of its recent range, though trading activity remained relatively subdued.

The broader cryptocurrency market followed a similar pattern. Most major digital assets posted limited moves over the past 24 hours, leaving the overall market roughly flat.

The absence of stock and bond market activity often leads to quieter conditions across crypto markets, even though digital assets continue to trade around the clock.

For now, bitcoin's ability to remain near the $63,000 mark suggests traders are maintaining positions despite the lack of fresh catalysts. Market participants will likely look for stronger signals once U.S. investors return and regular trading activity resumes.

The BTC/gold ratio peaked at around 40 in December 2024 before falling to a low of 12.2 in February. Since then, it has recovered to roughly 15.22 ounces.

Historical cycles suggest these drawdowns can be prolonged. Following the 2017 peak, the ratio took 396 days to reach its bottom, while the 2021 cycle lasted 579 days. The peak-to-trough decline was 427 days, placing it almost exactly between the previous two cycles.

At current levels, a BTC/gold ratio of 15.22 implies gold at $4,150/oz and bitcoin at approximately $63,300.

Bitcoin is down 8% in the second quarter and continues to languish just above $62,000. If it ends the month at current levels, it would mark a third consecutive quarterly decline, the longest losing streak since 2022, when bitcoin recorded four straight negative quarters.

Bitcoin is currently 15% down in June, making it tied for its worst monthly performance since February.

After falling below $83 on Thursday, Strategy's (MSTR) STRC rebounded to around $88 by the end of the session. The sharp decline had sparked concern among investors, and on Friday morning Strategy (MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor appeared to address the volatility with a post on X:

"Markets are closed today. Volatility is never easy. Bitcoin keeps working. So do we. Thank you for your support."

The post marked the company's only public comment following the selloff.

Bitcoin continues to sell off alongside precious metals, while Fed funds futures continue to price in 50 basis points of rate hikes over the next six months. By January 2027, markets are expecting the federal funds rate to reach 4.00% to 4.25%.

Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000, down 1% over the past 24 hours. Gold has slipped to around $4,100 per ounce, declining 1.3% over the same period, while silver is holding above $65 per ounce, down 1% on the day.

The Tron blockchain is busier than ever.

The number of daily confirmed transactions on the smart contract blockchain surpassed 14.3 million early this week, hitting a record high, according to data source TronScan.

The count has increased by 15% in four weeks.

That, however, has yet to translate into strength for the native token, TRX, which has dropped 10% to $0.32 in four weeks.

Here's a quick snapshot of major crypto market movements this morning in Europe. All the major CoinDesk indexes are lower, with the deepest declines in the DeFi Select Index (DFX), down 3.2% since midnight UTC, and the Computing Select Index (CPUS), which has dropped 2.2%. Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) both fell less than 1%, slipping for a fourth straight day, the longest streak in two weeks.

ENA, the governance token of stablecoin issuer Ethena, led declines in the DeFi index, dropping 9.2% since midnight. Ethena is a DeFI protocol known for its $4.5 billion market capitalization, dollar-pegged USDe, which generates yield by holding spot BTC, ETH and SOL and shorting an equivalent amount of derivatives to harvest the funding rate.

The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has slipped 1.2% since midnight, 3.2% over 24 hours, with all members in the red.

The U.S. and Iran signed their memorandum of understanding last Friday, following the G7 summit in France, formally ending the conflict that has roiled energy markets since February.

The 14-point framework halted hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, committed Iran to abandon nuclear weapons development, and will begin gradual U.S. sanctions relief, with a 60-day window to reach a full deal.

The bitcoin move is not a pure geopolitics play, said Mike McCluskey, co-founder of tx, in a note to CoinDesk.

The deal's impact is "less immediate than commonly believed." The real catalyst, he argues, is whether a sustained drop in oil prices cools inflation enough to shift central bank policy, a process that works with a lag.

The agreement is interim, sanctions persist, and the US has threatened renewed strikes if nuclear talks fail. Traders burned by collapsed ceasefires in April and early June are, in his words, "prioritizing pattern recognition over headlines."

A genuine shift, McCluskey says, would need three things: the accord to hold, the Fed to acknowledge oil-driven disinflation, and ETF inflows to continue. Two already look shaky, with the Fed turning hawkish on Wednesday, raising its rate projections rather than nodding to disinflation, and spot bitcoin and ether ETFs swinging back to outflows the same day.

Bitcoin isn’t the only asset feeling the heat from Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve meeting. The Japanese yen is also under heavy pressure, sliding toward four-decade lows.

The yen weakened to 161.80 per U.S. dollar in early trading, just below its 2024 low of 161.95 and dangerously close to its weakest level in nearly 40 years.

The move comes after Fed officials raised their interest-rate projections for 2026 and 2027, reinforcing expectations for a stronger U.S. dollar across global markets. Although the Bank of Japan raised its key rate to 1% earlier this week, that remains far below the U.S. federal funds rate of 3.5%. This large interest-rate differential continues to work against the yen.

Adding to the pressure, the BOJ also decided to pause the tapering of its bond purchases, a dovish signal that largely offset the impact of its rate hike.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen sharply from Monday’s high near $67,000 to around $62,700, with selling accelerating in the wake of the Fed’s more hawkish stance.

Bitcoin has spent five straight months trading below what it costs to produce, squeezing miners and forcing some to sell, JPMorgan said in a note. The bank pegs the cost to mine one bitcoin at about $78,000, well above the roughly $62,500 the asset fetches now.

The strain is showing and about 20% of miners are now unprofitable, the bank said citing CoinShares data, and publicly traded miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter to cover operating costs, more than they offloaded in all of 2025.

The network is adjusting on its own. When the price drops below cost, higher-cost miners power down, the hashrate, or total computing power securing the network, falls, and mining difficulty, the automatic setting for how hard it is to mine, resets lower.

That played out in early June, when difficulty dropped 10%, the second decline of that size this year.

Miners are also reacting faster than before. JPMorgan says the sensitivity of difficulty to price has climbed, with more operators sitting near breakeven and flipping machines on or off as prices move. The bank expects larger and more frequent adjustments for as long as bitcoin stays below its production cost.

The outlook is cautious, but JPMorgan flags one upside. The weak sentiment around the sector could itself prove a bullish contrarian signal, echoing the run of accumulation readings, from whale buying to falling exchange reserves, pointing the same way this month.