Bitcoin's biggest holders, Strategy and Metaplanet, are betting on math, not price
11 min ago
3 min read
Summary
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Bitcoin BTC$63,633.69 continues to trade in a narrow price band, and two of its biggest corporate believers aren't blinking.
Simon Gerovich, CEO of Metaplanet, and Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, two of the cryptocurrency’s biggest corporate holders, have doubled down on their argument that BTC’s maximum issuance of 21 million coins beats infinite money printing, whatever the price is doing this week.
On Sunday, Gerovich noted that the global M2 money supply has reached an all-time high of over $100 trillion, calling it a bullish long-term tailwind for the cryptocurrency.
“Bitcoin's price has decoupled from liquidity over the past year. But supply schedules don't change,” Gerovich said. “21 million will always be 21 million. When the money supply expands forever, you hold the asset that can't. That's why we hold hard money.”
Bitcoin’s price has decoupled from broader liquidity expansion over the past year. Even as M2 money supply swelled, BTC has nearly halved to $63,500. The divergence is consistent with previous market cycles, in which bearish trends bitcoin's price temporarily detached from rising macroeconomic liquidity.
Saylor voiced a similar opinion in a different framing. He said that understanding bitcoin requires first understanding money itself.
“Money is energy. Bitcoin is digital monetary energy,” he stated, drawing from his recent essay arguing that money functions as stored economic energy created by human effort, and that bitcoin represents its most efficient digital form because “its supply cannot be expanded arbitrarily.”
Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, worth $53 billion, making it the world's largest publicly listed bitcoin holder. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet holds 43,000 BTC ($2.7 billion), putting it in third place, according to data source Bitcoin Treasuries.
Jurrier Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, also said he expects BTC to catch up with money supply if gold starts rallying again.
“Based on my Gold & Liquidity regression between global M2 and gold, gold is worth around $5k. My guess is that if gold starts to build momentum from here, that rising tide will take Bitcoin and Ethereum with it,” Timmer said on X.
Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry (CNBC): Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a halt over the weekend ahead of the expiry date of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran on Monday, with no official negotiations or deal in sight.
- Bitpanda fined 70,000 euros in Austria’s first published MiCA enforcement case (CoinDesk): Austria’s Financial Market Authority fined Bitpanda GmbH 70,000 euros ($81,150) for breaches of the EU’s MiCA regulation in the regulator’s first penalty over the rules.
- The bitcoin futures market looks like a crowded club with a tiny exit – and it could cause pain (CoinDesk): The bitcoin futures market is increasingly looking like a crowded public club with a tiny exit door, setting the stage for a potential liquidity trap and wild price swings. The open interest in futures stands at $48 billion, and the 24-hour trading volume tallies $25 billion.
- Shares steady, dollar slips as markets pare Fed rate risks (Reuters): Global shares edged higher and the dollar fell to its lowest level since June after a run of soft U.S. economic data, including an unexpected drop in retail sales, saw markets reduce bets for an imminent rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Today’s signal
The chart shows daily swings in the ether-bitcoin ratio in candlestick format with key simple moving averages (SMA) overlaid.
The 50-day SMA is crossing above the 200-day SMA to confirm the so-called “golden crossover.”
This pattern is widely seen as a marker of long-term uptrend, which is a sign that ether could continue to outperform its larger peer.
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