BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are back in aggregate profit, but onchain data suggests it’s too early to confirm a new bull market.

Key points:

• Bitcoin supply profitability is improving, but the trend must prove its staying power before confirming a market recovery, says CryptoQuant.
• Supply in profit is now approaching 60%, up from its 2026 low near 46% less than a month ago.
• Long-term holder onchain losses continue to dominate — a caveat in a bullish recovery.

Bitcoin profit metrics risk second false breakout

According to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin supply in profit rebounded above the 50% mark in July.

Bitcoin supply in profit. Source: CryptoQuant

“Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit (%), the share of Bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low,” CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN summarized.

Bitcoin supply in profit data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

With nearly 60% of the BTC supply now in profit, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTHs) is also improving. 

LTHs are entities whose Bitcoin has remained dormant for at least six months. SOPR measures the proportion of LTH coins moving onchain at a higher price relative to their previous transaction. Values above 1 indicate coins moving onchain mostly in profit, while values below 1 indicate LTH investors are moving coins at a loss, potentially indicating capitulatory activity.

ThechessONCHAIN explained that previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements.

The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of LTH-SOPR should remain above 1 without falling below that level for weeks on end, while total supply in profit should be above 64%. 

“This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over,” TheChessOnChain noted.

Since then, the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days.

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant

BTC investment recovery stays fragile

As Cointelegraph reported earlier, Bitcoin supply in loss crossed the 50% mark in June, a threshold that has historically preceded bear-market bottoms.

Related: Bitcoin will get ‘lift’ from Hyperliquid, Robinhood in next crypto bull market: Bitwise exec

Here, too, the data reveals similarities among Bitcoin bear markets, with the 50% loss mark sparking the final countdown to a BTC price cycle bottom in previous years.

Demand, meanwhile, appears mixed, with weak spot-market interest meeting a rebound in institutional BTC allocation.